Research
Working Papers
I propose a structural micro-founded sticky-noisy information model with high- and low-uncertainty regimes. Agents first appraise the state of uncertainty and only spend resources to update their inflation expectations if they perceive uncertainty as sufficiently high. Time-varying uncertainty affects expectation formation through two direct channels: 1) the wake-up call effect, which causes agents to pay more attention, increasing their quantity of information; and 2) the wait-and-see effect, which decreases their quality of information and prompts them to put less weight on new noisier information. Using structural estimation of alternative models with information frictions, I find that accounting for the indirect state-dependence channel, the proposed innovation of the model, better explains the observed information rigidity, since it considers the interaction between the two direct effects. A substantial amount of information rigidity is due to inattention, leaving ample room for policymakers to employ frequent, direct, and simple forward guidance to "pierce the veil" of inattention.
“Inflation Dynamics of Emerging Economies in a Global Context,” with Saad Ahmad. U.S. International Trade Commission Office of Economics Working Paper.
If the inflation globalization hypothesis holds, external factors will eventually replace the domestic determinants of inflation in highly open economies, so that local prices in these countries are increasingly driven by global events. The empirical findings have been mixed, with little consensus on the importance of the global output gap and thus globalization in a country’s inflation process. This paper focuses on the inflation dynamics of emerging economies. First, we examine whether the poolability assumption, common in the literature, holds for modelling emerging economies. Next, we employ a simple out-of-sample forecasting exercise to evaluate the performance of a standard Phillips Curve model against a globalization-augmented Philips Curve. Through this comparison, we determine the usefulness of the global output gap variable in predicting the inflation dynamics of emerging economies.
Publications
Kazandjian, Romina, Lisa Kolovich, Kalpana Kochhar, and Monique Newiak (2019). “Gender Equality and Economic Diversification.” Social Sciences Special Issue: The Macroeconomics of Gender Inequality 8(4):118.
We show that gender inequality decreases the variety of goods countries produce and export, in particular in low-income and developing countries. We argue that this happens through at least two channels: first, gender gaps in opportunity, such as lower educational enrollment rates for girls than for boys, harm diversification by constraining the potential pool of human capital available in an economy. Second, gender gaps in the labor market impede the development of new ideas by decreasing the efficiency of the labor force. Our empirical estimates support these hypotheses, providing evidence that gender-friendly policies could help countries diversify their economies.
Kazandjian, Romina, Lisa Kolovich, Kalpana Kochhar, and Monique Newiak (2016). “Empowering Women Can Diversify the Economy,” in Kochhar, Kalpana, Sonali Jain-Chandra, Monique Newiak, eds. Women, Work, and Economic Growth: Leveling the Playing Field. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
Gender inequality decreases the variety of goods countries produce and export, particularly for low-income and developing economies. This happens through at least two channels. First, gender gaps in opportunity, such as lower educational enrollment rates for girls than for boys, harm diversification by constraining the potential pool of human capital available in an economy. Second, gender gaps in the labor market impede the development of new ideas by decreasing the efficiency of the labor force. Our empirical estimates provide evidence that gender-friendly policies could help countries diversify their economies.